Why does Revenue show a smaller number than Shopify?

Shopify shows gross (with VAT), this tool shows net (without VAT). The 27% VAT isn't yours — it's collected for NAV. Margin and cash flow are computed on net only.

What is „peak deficit"?

The lowest point of cumulative cash flow during the projection. If you're at -8M Ft at the end of month 4, that's your peak deficit — the minimum cash you need available.

Monthly vs quarterly VAT in the tool?

Monthly: each month's accrued VAT becomes next month's cash outflow. Quarterly: 3 months of VAT bunches up at month 4, 7, 10, creating bigger spikes. NAV decides which schedule you're on.

Isn't „gross margin" VAT-inclusive?

No. „Gross margin" here is the English accounting term — revenue minus COGS, before opex/CAC. To make it explicit when VAT mode is on, the label gets a „(net)" suffix.

How do I use my own data?

Click „Forecast from my data" in the topbar. The tool pulls your last 30 days of orders and auto-fills AOV, CPA, margin. Blue dots indicate fields populated from data.

I see a negative VAT remittance — is this a bug?

No. If input VAT exceeds output VAT (heavy inventory month, low revenue), NAV either refunds you or carries it forward as credit. The tool models this as a cash inflow.

What’s „max safe budget"?

The M1 ad spend that keeps cumulative cash within your ceiling. Found via binary search. If „No limit" shows, your unit economics are good enough to scale arbitrarily.

Cash-Flow Lab

How much cash do you need on hand so growth doesn't suffocate you? This tool projects month-by-month when you'll turn cash-positive and how much working capital you need — including proper Hungarian VAT handling.

Who is this for? E-commerce owners on Shopify or UNAS who want to project cash flow before scaling. Hungarian merchants get full VAT handling out of the box (27% / NAV monthly or quarterly filing), but the tool works equally well with VAT mode off — for sub-12M Ft revenue shops, VAT-exempt businesses, or operators outside Hungary.

What does this tool do?

Cash-Flow Lab is a projection tool: given your assumptions about revenue, costs, and customer retention, it tells you when you'll go cash-positive month-over-month, how deep your peak deficit will be, and how many months it takes for the average customer to pay back their acquisition cost.

It doesn't analyze the past — it answers concrete „what if…?" questions for the next 3-12 months.

When to use it

Before scaling

Check if larger ad spend wrecks cash flow before you commit.

Before a bank meeting

Know exactly how much credit you need and when.

Before a VAT filing

Confirm you'll have cash on the day NAV pulls.

Negotiating supplier terms

Net-30 worth a 5% supplier-price hike?

Launching a new category

Can the business absorb a 25%-margin line?

Quick start in 3 steps

Load your data

Click „Forecast from my data" in the topbar. The tool auto-fills AOV, CPA, margin, and VAT from your last 30 days of orders.

Sanity-check the assumptions

In the left sidebar, confirm M1 spend, growth rate (default 10%/mo), and VAT mode. Blue dots indicate values that came from your data.

Read the verdict

Top right shows a green / amber / red box: „can grow", „grow carefully", or „runs out of cash".

Important: the data load uses your actual Shopify/UNAS orders. If COGS data is missing for a period, a default margin % is used — blue dots indicate which fields came from data vs. manual input.

Filling the inputs

Each field is an assumption about the future. Defaults come from your data (if loaded) or from industry presets.

Unit economics

AOV (Average Order Value)

23,400 Ft

What a customer pays per order, including VAT — exactly what Shopify shows.

CPA (Cost per Acquisition)

7,920 Ft

What you spend on ads to acquire one new customer. Meta + Google + any other channel.

Gross Profit %

35%

What you keep from net (VAT-excluded) revenue after COGS. Matches your dashboard's „Gross Profit %" card.

Split first vs repeat

Usually unnecessary

Toggle on if first-order and repeat economics differ (different products / packaging). Otherwise leave off.

Growth & horizon

M1 spend

7,200,000 Ft

Ad budget in month 1. Divided by CPA = number of new customers acquired.

Monthly growth

10%/mo

How much you grow ad spend per month. 10% = slow, 20% = aggressive, 0% = steady state.

Projection horizon

12 months

Months to project forward. 12 by default; 6 is enough for early scaling.

Cash ceiling

20,000,000 Ft

Maximum negative balance your business can absorb. Credit line + own equity.

Cash timing

Supplier payment terms

0 days (prepay)

Days you have to pay suppliers after invoicing. Net-30 = 30-day defer → cash-flow positive.

Card settlement delay

2 days

Days until card-processed money lands in your bank.

Fixed monthly opex

800,000 Ft

Rent, salaries, software. Subtracted from every month.

ÁFA / VAT

VAT mode

Simplified for HU shops

„Simplified" = tool handles VAT pass-through. „None" = below VAT threshold (alanyi mentes).

VAT rate

27%

Typically 27% in Hungary. Drives output VAT calculation.

VAT remittance frequency

Monthly

Monthly (>1M Ft annual) or quarterly. NAV decides — don’t guess.

Reading the results

1. Verdict box

One-sentence summary: can you grow on this trajectory? Color matters:

Green — within cash ceiling, payback healthy.
Amber — workable but close to a limit.
Red — runs out of cash or customers don't pay back.

2. Cohort matrix

Rows: cohorts by acquisition month (C1, C2, …). Columns: project months. Each cell is one cohort’s contribution in that month. Red = loss, green = profit. Click any cell for a detail modal.

3. Cash Flow Waterfall

Monthly net cash bars + cumulative running line. Lowest point = peak deficit, the cash you must have available.

4. Monthly Summary table

Month, new customers, ad spend, repeat orders, total revenue (net), gross margin (net), VAT paid (when active), net cash, cumulative, LTV:CAC ratio.

The „(net)" suffix means: VAT-excluded value. Shown when VAT mode is on. The tool always computes margin and payback on net revenue because VAT is a pass-through tax — not yours.

How VAT is handled

Hungarian VAT logic is the most distinctive feature. Here are the rules as the tool applies them:

1. Gross AOV → net (internal)

You enter gross AOV (23,400 Ft, what Shopify shows). The tool divides by 1.27 to get net AOV (18,425 Ft). All margin math runs on net.

2. Output VAT − Input VAT = NAV remittance

Output VAT  = 0.27 × net revenue
Input VAT   = 0.27 × net COGS  (assuming fully deductible)
Remitted    = Output − Input
            = 0.27 × gross margin

3. Timing: 20th-of-next-period

Monthly filers: this month's accrued VAT becomes next month's outflow. Quarterly filers: VAT for Q1 is paid in April. The tool models both schedules automatically.

4. VAT refunds (negative remittance)

If input VAT exceeds output VAT (heavy inventory month, low revenue), NAV refunds you or carries it forward. The tool models this as a cash inflow.

Simplifications worth knowing:

Input VAT on fixed opex isn’t deducted (5–15% error margin)
Meta/Google ads are reverse-charge (net zero) — correct
Returns aren’t separately modeled (significant if >5% return rate)
Sub-12M Ft revenue → use VAT mode „None\" (alanyi mentes)

Worked examples

1. Supplements shop, 27% VAT, aggressive scaling

AOV (gross)	20,000 Ft
CPA	6,000 Ft
Margin (on net)	55%
M1 spend	3,000,000 Ft → 500 customers/mo
Growth	20%/mo
Cash ceiling	15,000,000 Ft

Expected: 2-3 months underwater (peak deficit ~ -10M Ft), but high margin (55% × 15,700 net AOV ≈ 8,600 Ft margin/customer) and 6K CPA → first-month positive unit economics. Cash-positive by month 4.

2. Fashion shop, 27% VAT, thin margin

AOV (gross)	35,000 Ft
CPA	9,000 Ft
Margin (on net)	22%
M1 spend	2,000,000 Ft
Growth	10%/mo
Cash ceiling	8,000,000 Ft

Expected: red verdict. Net AOV 27,559 Ft, margin per customer 6,063 Ft, CPA 9,000 Ft → 3K loss on first order. Repeats can’t close it fast enough; peak deficit overruns the 8M ceiling. Either lift margin or lower CPA.

3. Small shop, VAT-exempt

AOV	15,000 Ft (no VAT)
CPA	3,500 Ft
Margin	40%
M1 spend	350,000 Ft
VAT mode	None

Expected: simpler model. No VAT remittance, no net/gross conversion. Margin per customer = 6,000 Ft, CPA 3,500 Ft → 2,500 Ft profit on first order. Stable positive unit economics.